In a study released in January 2022 by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (a U.S. center for nationwide collection of enrollment and degree data), numbers revealed that undergraduate enrollment for fall 2021 declined by 3.1%, or 465,300 students, in comparison to enrollment from fall 2020. The Center found that the nation’s 2021 freshman class was 9.2% less (213,400 students) than pre-pandemic, fall 2019 enrollment levels.
And it’s not just students entering undergraduate institutions to begin their academic careers. Overall, higher education enrollment (graduate and professional programs) declined by 2.7%, which followed a 2.5% decrease in enrollment from fall of 2020. Including lost enrollment from undergraduate and any other higher education programs, the Center approximates 1.2 million fewer students enrolled than fall 2019 levels.
In contextualizing the most recent drops in enrollment, Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, said, “Our final look at fall 2021 enrollment shows undergraduates continuing to sit out in droves as colleges navigate yet another year of COVID-19.”
But while the pandemic’s disturbances on higher educational pursuits are clearly undeniable, the pandemic only “turbocharged the declines at the undergraduate level” that have now occurred on a consistently yearly basis for nearly a decade. Jason Lane, dean of Miami University’s College of Education, Health and Society calls this a “crisis” that still isn’t widely recognized.
The high school directly to undergraduate institution pipeline is drying up at astounding rates, and the once culturally imprinted American college pathway to success is fading away just as intensely.
One major reason? Cost. The Education Data Initiative found that since 1990, average tuition and rates fees have increased by 130% when adjusted for inflation. Yearly tuition costs, which for many American’s represents their entire yearly incomes, are likely to increase on a yearly basis at numerous institutions. Yet the current federal American minimum wage has remained stagnant at $7.25 for the last decade, even losing 21% of its value when adjusting for inflation.
Federal student loan programs have instead replaced these income voids, allowing students another path to higher education. But without a doubt, the now ingrained sociocultural terror of student loan debt and repayment crises of the last decade are not doing enrollment rates any favors.
Labelled a $1.6 trillion crisis by CNBC, one that the Guardian reported as “killing the middle class,” recent high school graduates are taking notes from the tribulations of generations past, deciding to forego college enrollment to thus forego debt accumulation and inability to repay, decades-long financial burdens and more.
In addition to unaffordability and life long threatening debt, students are not enrolling in college because it’s simply not necessary for their life plans and future employment prospects. For example, trade and vocational schools are “slowly coming into fashion” for younger generations, providing stable career and economic prospects within shorter amounts of time and lesser amounts of debt (or even none at all).
And then there are some prominent industries where often, a post-high school degree isn’t needed at all. In a 2021 Harvard Business Review article, Jeff Mazur wrote, “In today’s hiring landscape, you don’t need to count yourself out of the running if you don’t have a degree. What’s more important is to show that you’re driven, passionate, and possess the skills that the workforce needs.”
It appears that employers and students are on the same page: A CNN article published in 2021 was titled “No college degree? More employers than ever just don’t care.” Industries like tech are providing employees learning opportunities from within and earning opportunities that put post-Bachelor’s degree earnings to shame.
Google now offers 6-month certificate programs (as low as $49 a month), providing an education they say is comparable to a bachelor’s degree with less time, less money, and a direct career pipeline. Even Tesla doesn’t require a bachelor’s degree for every role.
As tuitions perpetually rise, incomes perpetually stagnate, and for many reasons more, this generation’s workforce is taking account of all options available to them, not just a sociocultural, decades-long tradition. With more non-college learning opportunities and earning pathways available to younger generations than ever before, it’s likely that college enrollment rates will continue to struggle in the years to come.
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